SYLLABUS
GS-3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution and Degradation, Environmental Impact Assessment.
Context: Recently, the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) 2025 study, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, reported that human contribution to global warming reached its highest recorded level in 2025, highlighting the accelerating impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the Earth’s climate system.
More on the News
- The IGCC study provides annual updates on key climate indicators between major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and is prepared by an international team of climate scientists.
- The findings broadly corroborate the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assessment that 2025 was among the warmest years on record, although slightly cooler than 2024 due to natural climatic variability.
- The study also warns that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is shrinking rapidly, leaving very little room for continued emissions at current levels.
Key Findings of the Study
- Human Contribution to Warming Reaches Record High: The average global temperatures in 2025 were about 1.39°C higher than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline. Of the total increase, human-induced warming reached 1.37°C, the highest level recorded so far, indicating that human activities account for almost the entirety of long-term global warming in 2025.
- Natural Variability vs Human Influence: Although 2025 was influenced by La Niña conditions, which typically have a cooling effect on global temperatures, human-induced warming still reached a record high, demonstrating that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions remain the dominant driver of long-term climate change.
- Consistent Rise in Human-Induced Warming: The contribution of human activities to global warming has steadily increased from 1.31°C in 2023 to 1.36°C in 2024 and 1.37°C in 2025, indicating a persistent upward trend despite year-to-year fluctuations in observed temperatures caused by natural climate variability.
- Human-induced warming increased at an average rate of around 0.27°C per decade during 2015–2024, reflecting the continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations.
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions at an All-Time High: Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 56.8 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2025, the highest level ever recorded, continuing to strengthen the warming effect of the atmosphere.
- Carbon Budget Rapidly Shrinking: The remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C has declined to approximately 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the beginning of 2026.
- At current emission rates, this budget could be exhausted in less than three years, significantly narrowing the window for achieving the Paris Agreement target.
Significance of the Findings
- Warning for the Paris Agreement Goals: The study indicates that the world is dangerously close to exhausting the remaining carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C temperature goal, making immediate and substantial emission reductions imperative.
- Stronger Evidence of Human Influence: The finding that 1.37°C out of the total 1.39°C warming in 2025 was human-induced provides compelling evidence that anthropogenic activities remain the principal driver of climate change.
- Increasing Climate Risks: Rising temperatures and accelerating heat accumulation increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires and intense precipitation episodes.
- Implications for India and Other Developing Countries: Countries such as India face heightened risks to agriculture, water resources, food security, public health and disaster management, underscoring the need for both climate mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Need for Urgent Global Climate Action: The rapidly shrinking carbon budget suggests that delaying climate action today will require much steeper and more costly emission reductions in the future.