SYLLABUS
GS-2: Government Policies and Interventions for Development in various sectors and Issues arising out of their Design and Implementation.
GS-3: Indigenization of Technology and Developing New Technology.
Context: NITI Aayog has released a set of study reports outlining India’s development pathways towards achieving the goal of Viksit Bharat by 2047 while progressing towards Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070.
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- India seeks to achieve a dual objective of developed-economy status (Viksit Bharat) by 2047 alongside net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2070, representing a simultaneous growth-and-decarbonisation transition of unprecedented scale.
- In this context, NITI Aayog has presented a roadmap, which highlights that reconciling rapid GDP expansion, energy security, and climate responsibility is central to India’s long-term policy planning.
- The study uses a model-based framework with two core scenarios: a Current Policy Scenario (CPS) that extends existing policies and trends, and a more ambitious Net Zero Scenario (NZS) aligned with India’s 2070 Net Zero pledge.
- The transition is anchored in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of equity, climate justice, and common but differentiated responsibilities, and builds on India’s Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) submitted by India to the UNFCCC in 2022.
Key Findings of the Report
- Growth and Development Trajectory:
- GDP is projected to rise from USD 4.18 trillion in 2025 to about USD 30 trillion by 2047 across scenarios, indicating resilience of long-term growth.
- Urbanisation is expected to increase from 37% (2023) to 51% by 2047 and 65% by 2070, driving major expansion in transport, buildings, and infrastructure.
- Net-zero transition has limited long-term impact on GDP, with variations around 0.5% by 2050 depending on financing structure.
- Energy Transition Pathway:
- Under the Net Zero Scenario, India’s energy demand grows modestly (only 2.1–2.6 times between 2025 and 2070) despite an eleven-fold expansion of GDP, driven by efficiency gains, electrification and circularity.
- Electricity becomes the backbone of the economy, with renewables and nuclear power dominating generation by mid-century, while fossil fuels shrink to a residual role by 2070.
- Electricity’s share of final energy rises from 21% (2025) to 40% in CPS and 60% in NZS by 2070, driven by EVs, electric heat, and clean cooking.
- Coal demand may rise until mid-century under current policies before declining sharply in a net-zero scenario, where residual use is confined to hard-to-abate sectors with carbon capture.
- The primary energy mix shifts from 87% fossil fuels in 2025 to 54% under CPS and just 14% under NZS by 2070.
- Finance and Investment Structure:
- Achieving Net Zero requires cumulative investments of about USD 22.7 trillion by 2070, roughly USD 500 billion per year, with the power sector taking over half.
- Expected domestic and external flows could mobilise about USD 16.2 trillion, leaving a financing gap of around USD 6.5 trillion that must be met largely from international capital.
- Critical Minerals and Social Impacts:
- Demand for critical energy transition minerals (CETMs) exceeds 110 Mt during 2050–70 under NZS, about 51% higher than CPS, with EV batteries and solar dominating usage.
- Copper and graphite account for nearly two-thirds of cumulative CETM demand by 2070, while India remains heavily import-dependent for lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths.
- Net Zero paths generate more jobs overall (about 7 million additional energy-sector jobs by 2050 versus today), but around 17 million workers in fossil-linked manufacturing and 150+ coal-dependent districts face structural disruption.
- Demand for critical energy transition minerals (CETMs) exceeds 110 Mt during 2050–70 under NZS, about 51% higher than CPS, with EV batteries and solar dominating usage.
Challenges & Constraints
- Technological and Infrastructure Constraints: Many key Net Zero technologies, such as Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS), long-duration storage, small modular reactors, and green hydrogen at scale, are still nascent or unproven commercially.
- Financial and Macroeconomic Risks: The USD 6.5 trillion financing gap and need to front-load about USD 8 trillion by 2050 pose significant capital mobilisation and cost-of-capital challenges.
- Additionally, overreliance on domestic financing could crowd out private investment and consumption, while excessive foreign financing raises concerns over external vulnerability and current account deficits.
- Resource and Supply-Chain Pressures:
- Large-scale renewable deployment competes for land and water with agriculture, urban growth and ecosystems, especially in already water-stressed states where nearly 75% of RE capacity is concentrated.
- High import dependence for critical minerals exposes India to concentrated and geopolitically sensitive global supply chains.
- Social and Governance Challenges: Regional job losses in coal and fossil-fuel belts demand extensive reskilling, social protection and economic diversification to avoid inequitable outcomes.
Recommendations of the Report
- Adopt an economy-wide “Avoid–Shift–Improve” approach: avoid unnecessary demand, shift to low‑carbon modes, and improve efficiency across transport, buildings and industry.
- Use District Mineral Foundations, Skill India and the Skill Council for Green Jobs to fund retraining, relocation and diversification in fossil-dependent regions, with special focus on women and marginalised groups.
- Establish a National Green Finance Institution, deepen bond markets, create a unified climate finance taxonomy, and scale blended finance to crowd in foreign and private capital.
- Build a resilient CETM ecosystem via domestic exploration, refining and advanced recycling, diversified international sourcing, and production-linked incentives for clean-tech manufacturing.
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